In the face of global climate challenges, the Sultanate of Oman has made a bold commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, aligning with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. This ambitious target places Oman among over 70 nations committed to combating climate change. Oman’s pathway, referred to as the "orderly transition," balances economic sustainability with environmental goals, ensuring the journey to net zero is feasible, affordable, and beneficial for the nation.
Current Emission Landscape
As of 2021, Oman emitted approximately 90 million tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e), primarily from five key sectors: industry (32%), oil and gas (26%), power (19%), transport (18%), and buildings. Without action, emissions are projected to rise by 16%, reaching 104 MtCO2e by 2050.
The challenge is clear: Oman must reduce emissions while ensuring economic growth and energy security. To achieve this, the country has identified five guiding objectives: environmental sustainability, energy cost minimization, economic optimization, job creation, and energy supply security.
The Orderly Transition Pathway
Oman's transition to net zero will follow an orderly pathway, meaning the country will prioritize cost-effective, scalable solutions before gradually addressing more difficult-to-abate emissions. This middle-ground approach contrasts with delayed or accelerated strategies, which either defer costly action or push for early, expensive decarbonization.
An orderly transition could enable Oman to reduce emissions by 97 MtCO2e by 2050. Decarbonization efforts through 2030 are expected to account for 6% of the reduction, while 54% will be achieved by 2040. The remaining “last mile” emissions (about 7 Mt) will be tackled using advanced technologies, such as direct-air capture (DAC), and behavioural changes.
Key Sectors and Technologies
Six core decarbonization technologies are at the heart of Oman’s net zero strategy: energy efficiency, electrification, renewable energy, battery technologies, sustainable hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Together, these technologies are projected to cover 90% of the required emissions abatement.
- Industry: As the largest emitter, the industrial sector, including petroleum refining, iron and steel, and cement, will play a crucial role. Electrification of heat processes, hydrogen-based production, and CCS will be instrumental in reducing emissions by 41%.
- Power: The power sector will transition towards renewable energy, primarily solar and wind, which could provide 60% of Oman’s electricity needs by 2050. This shift is expected to reduce generation costs by 50%, offsetting much of the initial investment.
- Transport: Passenger cars and trucks are significant contributors to emissions. The adoption of battery-electric and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, supported by infrastructure investments, will reduce transport emissions by nearly 100% by 2050.
- Oil and Gas: Oman’s oil and gas sector will continue to operate during the transition, but decarbonization will be achieved through electrification, CCS, and repurposing natural gas. Emissions from this sector are expected to drop by 94%.
Economic and Social Benefits
The transition to net zero presents substantial economic opportunities. It is projected to contribute an additional 50% to Oman’s GDP by 2050, primarily driven by investments in hydrogen and green energy. Oman’s abundant solar and wind resources offer the potential to create a hydrogen export economy, positioning the country as a global leader in green hydrogen production.
Socially, the transition is expected to generate between 20-30% more jobs, particularly in the renewable energy and hydrogen sectors. Upskilling and reskilling initiatives will ensure Omani citizens are equipped to take advantage of these new opportunities.
Financial Considerations
Oman's net zero journey will require an additional USD 190 billion in capital investment by 2050. This figure rises to USD 230 billion when considering the investments necessary to unlock the hydrogen export economy. However, these expenditures are not expected to be fully borne by the government; the private sector is anticipated to finance 70-80% of the global energy transition.
Conclusion
Oman’s commitment to achieving net zero by 2050 represents a visionary approach to addressing the global climate crisis. Through its orderly transition pathway, Oman is not only ensuring a sustainable future but also positioning itself as a leader in the emerging green economy. With careful planning, technological innovation, and international collaboration, Oman is on the path to a cleaner, more prosperous future.